Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 43.546904 51.494568 60.262863 70.623860 82.500400 95.655812 111.296783
2024-10-06 32.554909 43.239297 56.213259 72.992011 93.966685 119.159482 151.528814
2024-10-13 24.717095 36.024137 50.831230 71.357000 98.741610 133.649094 181.077955
2024-10-20 22.181536 34.779399 52.274331 77.845100 113.666473 161.375526 228.884597
2024-10-27 17.272551 29.177327 46.718130 73.739732 113.442750 168.605400 249.740575
2024-11-03 15.264207 27.442424 46.287311 76.589739 122.855119 189.332439 290.131039
2024-11-10 13.894846 26.433531 46.710277 80.580715 134.065632 213.194257 336.363734
2024-11-17 12.611009 25.321809 46.752477 83.849484 144.286505 236.130250 382.548075
2024-11-24 11.032285 23.411452 45.186420 84.253757 149.907444 252.351787 419.533798
2024-12-01 9.284426 20.878717 42.191362 81.862780 150.670632 260.938219 445.151519
2024-12-08 8.195544 19.424175 40.897341 82.196010 155.844416 276.648061 482.602298
2024-12-15 7.358506 18.332526 40.115317 83.306748 162.334985 294.761821 524.753592
2024-12-22 5.854790 15.673412 36.226673 78.771324 159.459376 298.726673 546.840735
2024-12-29 5.225456 14.859817 35.938509 81.139651 169.401541 325.414440 609.084455
2025-01-05 4.342339 13.234232 33.688653 79.323335 171.362143 338.374892 648.889700
2025-01-12 4.248409 13.562514 35.712265 86.430573 190.898034 383.702332 747.337409
2025-01-19 3.393279 11.670899 32.424923 81.932534 187.311211 386.969903 771.929855
2025-01-26 3.116056 11.311370 32.651894 85.055235 199.197492 419.449722 850.650081
2025-02-02 2.931052 11.178372 33.405018 89.425814 213.984616 458.270375 943.022758
2025-02-09 2.721951 10.920172 33.800081 93.003597 227.380616 495.218681 1033.873919
2025-02-16 2.400025 10.213078 32.914129 93.445973 234.087881 519.572314 1102.415324
2025-02-23 2.007523 9.147905 30.876768 90.829277 233.846299 530.144911 1145.292984
2025-03-02 1.772044 8.567879 30.084037 91.194018 240.240844 554.351193 1215.636795